krause_05

Emory University
Department of Economics
Working Papers

Title: Studying the Effects of Household and Firm Credit on the Trade Balance: The Allocation of Funds Matters

Number: 05-10

Author: Berrak Buyukkarabacak and Stefan Krause

Issue Date: February 2005

Abstract: One of the most widely used indicators of financial development in the empirical literature is the Private Credit to GDP ratio. A key shortcoming of this measure is that it does not distinguish between the share of credit extended to households vis-à-vis firms. It is our contention that this distinction is crucial to analyze the effects of financial development on the trade balance: Changes in the composition of private credit should have an impact on the foreign trade deficit.
Our empirical findings show that: 1) private credit to households is negatively and significantly correlated with net exports; 2) private credit to firms is not significantly correlated with net exports; and 3) the allocation of credit matters; a higher proportion of firm credit is positively and significantly correlated with net exports.
A key implication of these results is that, whenever there is a sizeable trade deficit or a high risk of a currency crisis, policy makers should limit the growth of household credit while, at the same time, encourage further allocation of funds to firms.

Title:	Studying the Effects of Household and Firm Credit on the Trade Balance: The Allocation of Funds Matters
Number:	05-10
Author:	Berrak Buyukkarabacak and Stefan Krause
Issue Date:	February 2005
Abstract:	One of the most widely used indicators of financial development in the empirical literature is the Private Credit to GDP ratio. A key shortcoming of this measure is that it does not distinguish between the share of credit extended to households vis-à-vis firms. It is our contention that this distinction is crucial to analyze the effects of financial development on the trade balance: Changes in the composition of private credit should have an impact on the foreign trade deficit. Our empirical findings show that: 1) private credit to households is negatively and significantly correlated with net exports; 2) private credit to firms is not significantly correlated with net exports; and 3) the allocation of credit matters; a higher proportion of firm credit is positively and significantly correlated with net exports. A key implication of these results is that, whenever there is a sizeable trade deficit or a high risk of a currency crisis, policy makers should limit the growth of household credit while, at the same time, encourage further allocation of funds to firms.

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