| Title: | Does Capital Punishment Have a Deterrent Effect? New Evidence from Post-moratorium Panel Data |
| Number: | 01-01 |
| Author: | Hashem Dezhbakhsh , Paul Rubin and Joanna Mehlhop Shepherd |
| Issue Date: | January 2001 |
| Abstract: | Evidence on the deterrent effect of capital punishment is important for many states that are currently considering a change in their position on the issue. Existing studies use only Ehrlich’s data—U.S. aggregate time-series for 1933-1969 and state level cross-sectional data for 1940 and 1950—or minor extensions that lack evidence after the 1972-1976 Supreme Court imposed moratorium on capital punishment. For the first time, we examine the deterrent hypothesis using county-level post-moratorium panel data. The procedure we employ overcomes the aggregation problem, eliminates the bias arising from unobserved heterogeneity, and offers an inference which is relevant for the current crime level. Our results suggest that capital punishment has a strong deterrent effect. An increase in any of the three probabilities—arrest, sentencing, or execution—tends to reduce the crime rate. In particular, each execution results, on average, in 18 fewer murders—with a margin of error of plus and minus 10. Tests show that results are not driven by “tough” sentencing laws. |
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